Here is a quick comment I pulled off of Twitter on the EPA mandate recommending changes from Scott Irwin, Agricultural Economist at the University of Illinois
The EPA is looking to align mandates with actual production levels, which have slumped during the coronavirus pandemic. The mandates determine the amount of biofuels that oil refiners must blend into their fuel mix. Aligning mandates with actual production levels would require some kind of waiver of RFS statutory volumes. No way around that if actual volumes are less than the statutory 15 billion gallons for the conventional mandate.
So, if that is the direction the Biden Admin is going then the really interesting part of the upcoming proposal is how they justify waiving the conventional mandate for 2021 and 2022. Since its Biden Admin maybe returning to “inadequate domestic supply” arguments. We have had extended court battles over inadequate domestic supply and then SREs. Is there going to be a new one for Biden Admin cuts to the conventional mandate? If conventional (ethanol) mandate is cut this is going to courts quicker than you can count 1,2,3. I am still stunned that we are even having to consider the possibility of a conventional mandate waiver under a Biden Admin.
Here is a link to the twitter thread: https://twitter.com/ScottIrwinUI/status/1428771244426530816