Black Sea wheat futures lead overnight wheat decline.

Row crop futures opened firm overnight on degrading crop conditions, lifting soybeans and corn while wheat futures struggled. Overnight, with French milling wheat declining almost $6.00 a ton lower (roughly a $0.18 a bushel equivalent), spilling wheat into a larger correction after having seen an elevated run of cumulative business that has now short-term dried up. This is creating a short-term peak for Black Sea wheat prices.

In yesterday afternoon's data, the NASS indicated that US corn/soybean condition ratings fell last week with 57% (down 3%) of the US soybean and 62% (down 2%) of the US corn crop is rated GD/EX. In addition, 3% of the US corn crop is in dough with 22% in dent, while 81% of the US soybean crop is setting pods, and 58% of the US spring wheat harvest is completed. Warm/dry Central US weather is pushing row crop maturity.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour found record corn yield potential in Ohio while South Dakota corn yield prospects were better than expected. The PF Ohio corn yield was a record 185 BPA, up 18 BPA from last year and the 3-year average. The South Dakota state corn yield was calculated at 151.5 BPA, down 27.7 BPA from last year and down 19 BPA from the 3-year average. NASS had pegged the South Dakota corn yield at 133.0 BPA last week. Ohio soybean pod counts were 1,195 pods in a 3 X 3′ square, which is up slightly from last year and the 3-year average of 1,055 pods. In South Dakota, the pod counts were 997 pods vs 1,251 in 2020 and a 3-year average of 1,036. The surprise was that South Dakota pod counts were better than expected relative to the drought. The NASS August South Dakota yield was 49.0 BPA compared to 50 BPA last year, while Ohio was 58 BPA, 4 BPA more than 2020. Grain futures are providing a choppy week environment, with price rallies stalling, creating price breaks that will seek out renewed buying at chart support values.

Tropical storm Fred is located across Georgia and is heading north to far Western Tennessee with soaking rainfall. The storm then heads north to the NE US, producing rain of .5-2.00″ along its way. The Central US is dry with near to above normal temperatures across the Lake States. Highs range from the mid 80's to the mid 90's across the N & C Plains and into the N Midwest. The warmest period of the forecast is the next 2-3 days before cooler temperatures push southward from Canada. N Plains high temps decline to the 70's to the lower 80's, the coolest readings in weeks.

Rainfall returns to the N Plains and the Midwest starting on the weekend. A slow-moving front pushes south and east from the Dakotas, including rainfall for Minnesota/Iowa of .4-1.50″ thru early next week. The system produces needed rain for IL\IN next week. The extended 10-14 day forecast returns heat/dryness to the N Plains and the W Midwest with just a few lite showers into Sept 1st. A dry/warm finish of the N Plains and W Midwest growing season is forecast.

Cash cattle trade again was quiet Monday, typical for this time of the week, but the early outlook is firm with an explosive box beef market. The boxed beef market saw the 19th consecutive day higher on Monday, with the choice value marking the 14th consecutive day with gains of more than $2. The choice cutout gained $4.97 to $329.80, and the select value rose $5.53. The choice rib value has led the beef rally from the July low, adding $18 to the total carcass value. Monday's quote at $549.84 was a record high price, exceeding previous records set in June 2021 and May 2020. The box beef market is seasonally anticipated to peak in late August or the opening part of September.