Pro Farmer Crop Tour starts today.
After a mixed start overnight in grain futures, they firmed in the morning hours, as French milling wheat rose again overnight active Chinese soymeal interest listed the market. The NOPA will be out with its July crush data at 11 AM CT, which is expected to reflect an 8% decline from last month. A crush estimate of around 159-160 Mil Bu with soyoil stocks pegged around 1,500 Mil pounds. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour gets underway, and traders await this afternoon’s NASS weekly crop condition report. US corn/soybean conditions are expected to hold steady or decline slightly. Traders are looking for the net change in conditions since the opening days of August to gauge what the September NASS Crop Report will say.
The two legs of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour will start today, with one starting in Sioux Falls, South Dakota and the other in Columbus, Ohio. Both legs will push to completion in Rochester, Minnesota on Thursday evening. The PF Tour will tour some of the best areas of the Midwest, and it is expected high or record high yields will be reported in corn with high soybean pod counts. The Tour will release their final crop yields on Friday.
China is showing interest in US soybeans for October/November shipment, with additional daily sales expected to be announced by USDA. Algeria is seeking world wheat and likely will secure French origin. Other demand is routine, with US corn starting to become competitively priced against South American offers.
The GFS/EU weather models are fair agreement. Fred looks to make landfall across the Florida Panhandle later today with heavy rain and a slow progression into W Tennessee by Wednesday. The SE US will see soaking rains from Fred with totals ranging from 2-3.50″. Fred will act to block the North American weather pattern with limited Central US rainfall into the weekend. N and C Plains rain chances start to increase on late Saturday/Sunday. Central US temps moderate late-week following a few warm/hot days early this week with highs in the mid 80s/mid 90s. A generally dry Central US weather pattern will prevail for the next 5-6 days with improved rains in the 7-12 day period. The rains are expected to be focused on the N Plains and the NW Midwest from the Dakotas into Iowa, where they are desperately needed.
Cattle futures ended last week on a firmer note, with February cattle closing at its highest daily close in April cattle closing into new contract highs. The cash cattle market held steady last week amid sharply higher beef prices and slaughter margins. Cattle in the south sold steady for the week at $121, while cattle in the north brought $123-126. The early outlook for this week is steady. The boxed beef market put in another week of strong gains. The choice cutout value was up $28.57 for the week at $324.83, with the rib value gaining nearly $56 and the loin value more than $37. The select value was $20.93 higher at $298.02. Estimated slaughter margins gained $144/head to $754, the most in 8 weeks and a record for early August. Historic processing margins keep the early week cash market outlook steady.