The 11-15 day EU weather model suggests rain.
From the opening tick of the evening session, grain futures tumbled into a sharply lower session, as the hint of the 11-15 day ensemble for the EU weather model suggested moisture at the opening of August. Algorithm computer systems kicked in and sold relentlessly, irrelevant to what we do know his crop hurting-yield reducing weather for the next ten days. The extended EU Ensemble model offered improved rainfall chances in the 11-15 day period as it takes the high-pressure Ridge to the SW US. The GFS Ensemble model holds onto the dry weather trend for the Plains and the W Midwest with the Ridge position over the South Central US. The GFS 16-20 day Ensemble forecast is also dry/warm for the first half of August. The EU Ensemble Weekly forecast is available later this afternoon. The extended range models are split in the extended forecast.
The accuracy of the weather models the past 60 days beyond 10 days forward has been horrible, yet algorithm computers are programmed to trade weather shifts relentlessly. Ahead of the potential rain in the EU’s model’s 11-15 day forecast is 10 days of arid weather conditions with extreme heat for the Plains and the W Midwest with high temps ranging from the 90’s to lower 100’s. This forecast has not changed with the Operational EU model forecasting an amplified high-pressure Ridge across the Plains/W Midwest on Day 10. This EU Model, Operational Ridge position, makes the EU Ensemble forecast questionable. Rains fell Tuesday with totals of .2-1.00″, but another lengthy period of hot/dry weather is ahead for Ukraine and European Russia. The ongoing lack of rain will stress corn and other summer row crops. It is not a question that ratings on the crops will be lower next Monday, and the real question is by how much?
Russian sources are openly discussing a 2021 total Russian wheat crop that could be below 80 MMTs. Tight fisted farmer holding and falling production totals have rallied Black Sea wheat prices. Coffee futures have been sharply higher the last 3 sessions, as it has been acknowledged that the Brazilian coffee crop suffered extreme damage. How soon until this is acknowledged for Brazilian corn, only time will tell.
Cattle futures held technical support yesterday and closed higher even though cash trade cattle reported for Wednesday was down one dollar for the week in the South that $1 19. Volume was moderate, and asking prices across the south held at $120 or better for the rest of the week’s showlist. Light trade in Nebraska was quoted at $122-123 or $1-2 lower from last week. Cattle slaughter through Wednesday totaled 349,000 head, down 11,000 from last week. The lighter production brought the first signs of support into the beef market. The choice cutout gained $.36, and select rose $.19.
Trade estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed report call for a June marketing rate at 102% of last year, a placement rate of 96%, with a July 1 feedlot inventory at 99% of last year. If realized, the inventory would be the lowest in 3 years.
Deferred hogs are becoming overbought on the recovery rally with December and October back to levels we would suggest catch up hedging on October over $92.00 and December over $85.00.