Grain futures recover back to Sunday nights highs.
With the outside markets stable today and not creating a negative influence, grain futures opened firm last night and traded sharply higher row crop ratings that barely showed improvement after last week's cooler temperatures and rains. Spring wheat ratings collapsed historical lows to register an 11% GD/EX rating, compared to 1988's worst rating of 10%. This week's coming heat/dryness will produce lower ratings for row crops in next Monday's data, with too much rain becoming an issue in the Eastern cornbelt creating yellowing and compacted soils.
US crop condition ratings held steady in corn at 65% GD/EX while increasing 1% in soybeans to 60% GD/EX. The modest rating increase was seen as bullish amid last week's increase in rainfall and mild temperatures. US spring wheat GD/EX ratings fell to a historic low of just 11%, which argues for a 40% decline in yield. 73% of the US winter wheat harvest is completed, while 56% of the US corn crop is pollinating. 22% of the North Dakota, 27% of South Dakota, 62% of Minnesota, and 60% of Iowa corn is pollinating. The coming heat will threaten N Plains and W Midwest reproducing corn. 23% of the '21 US soybean crop is setting pods. The next 4-6 weeks of Central US weather is critical for 2021 US corn/soybean yield potential.
The weather forecasts offer an extended period of dry weather with heat building eastward from the Northern Plains into the Western Midwest. The extended range 10-15 day forecast amplifies the Central US high-Pressure Ridge offering extreme heat for the Plains and the entire Midwest. The lack of soil moisture across the N Plains, Minnesota and NW Iowa makes the coming 10-14 day spate of hot/dry weather extremely stressful on reproducing corn/soybean crops. The only good news in the overnight forecast is that showers could help crops in S Manitoba and SE Saskatchewan on the prospect of Ridge riding rainfall. Some of these rains leak into Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northern Ohio. The Ridge amplifies across the Central US in the 10-15 day period, extending the heat/dryness into August 5th.
The US Renewable Fuels Association is asking the EPA to continue the sale of E15 thru the summer on enforcement discretion as it awaits an appeal in court on the vacated Trump executive order, which allowed E15 to be sold year-round. The DC Court of Appeals vacated the '20 Trump Ruling on E15 several weeks ago.