USDA crop acreage and stocks report out today.
It's report day, and grain futures are entering it under pressure with prices lower across the board. NASS will release their June Stocks/Seeding Report at 11 AM CT, and this report is historically known for sharp, unpredictable moves. It's the end of the month and end of the quarter, which causes money managers to find more interest in closing than opening positions. Because of preventive plant last year, it's possible that most of the new acreage found today, if it is above last quarter's 183 Mil combined corn and bean acres, will be in the Dakotas. If that is confirmed, then the report will be bullish.
It's first notice day for July grain contracts, and deliveries tendered against July futures were 427 contracts of soyoil, 9 contacts of oats, and 13 contracts of July soybeans. No soymeal, corn or wheat futures were tendered. ADM tendered the July soyoil futures.
Brazil endured another night of hard frost/freeze with low temps ranging from 25-36 degrees across Parana and MGDS. This was the 2nd night of a hard freeze, and damage to developing corn was widespread. Private Brazilian traders estimate production losses of 3-4 MMTs. Still, Brazil's big problem could be with lite test weight and potentially moldy corn as many farmers lack the drying equipment to handle freeze damaged corn that will not properly mature. The US will likely be the recipient of larger world corn trade following a dire Brazilian drought and now a rather dire frost/freeze event.
World financial markets are widely mixed as traders await a speech from China's Xi Jinping marking China's 100th anniversary on the founding of communism. And OPEC will hold a ministerial meeting on Thursday. The US dollar is steady, with WTI crude oil futures $1.01/barrel higher at $73.98.
The Central US weather forecast shows warming/dry weather for the N Plains and NC Midwest for the next week. This follows a weather trend that has persisted since May. Thursday's weekly US Drought Monitor will show a deepening drought across the Plains/NC Midwest. The models do offer shower chances during July 8-9th for the Dakotas/Minnesota, but the models differ on rainfall locations and amounts. The prospect is these rains will experience diminished rainfall totals as the storm is a fast mover. Rains should range from .25-1.25″. The forecast indicates building heat for the Plains and the NC Midwest as a high-pressure Ridge expands east with highs in the 90's to the lower 100's. The heat persists into mid-July.
A mixed cattle trade developed yesterday, with feeder cattle closing higher despite the friendlier corn trade. Cash cattle markets were also inactive while boxed beef values continued to decline. At midday, the choice cutout was down close to $5, but losses extended into the afternoon to end $5.09 lower. The select value was down $3.56. The retail/wholesale price spread was $3.79/Lb, which was in line with the 5-year average. However, the producer's share of the total retail value was historically low at 38%.