USDA crop report day today at 11:00 a.m.
Grain futures pushed higher early in the night session, with soybeans making new contract highs, while corn and wheat carried through on further recovery. That ended in the overnight, as renewed selling re-appeared on the corn bounce, and wheat futures moved lower, led by Chicago and Kansas City wheat. The growing thought is that the USDA may up the winter wheat yields to help offset the upcoming spring wheat production losses that they will have to report in the June data due to the ongoing drought.
The May USDA Crop reports will be released at 11 AM CT. NASS will release its 1st survey-based US winter wheat crop production estimate while WASDE will use the March Planting Intentions estimates to update their initial February Outlook Forum US Supply/Demand balance sheets for 2021/22. WASDE will also update 2021/22 world production and ending stocks for the 1st time.
The average trade estimate for US 2021 winter wheat production is 1,877 Mil Bu, up 50 Mil Bu from last year. US 2021/22 US corn end stocks are forecast at 1,354 Mil Bu with soybean stocks at 132 Mil Bu. Both would produce record low stock/use ratios looking backwards to 1974 (for the May WASDE report). US old crop corn stocks are forecast at 1,260 Mil Bu with soybeans at 118 Mil Bu. The corn stocks estimate is down 92 Mil Bu from April while soybeans would be down 2 Mil Bu. US 2020/21 wheat end stocks are pegged at 849 Mil Bu, down 3 Mil Bu. WASDE is expected to raise US old crop corn exports by 75-100 Mil Bu. Significant for both crop years is WASDE estimates of China corn/soy imports.
The primary weather models offer limited rainfall for the N Plains, the N Midwest, and the Canadian Prairies over the next 10 days. The remainder of the Central US will enjoy near to above normal rainfall. Temps will stay cool thru the weekend with warming next week and well into the 11-15 day period. The forecast maintains arid weather conditions across the N Plains, the far NW Midwest, and the Canadian Prairies into May 24th. There is no evidence of needed rain that would dent the deepening drought. And temps look to warm across this area with readings 6-10 degrees above normal starting next week. The combination of warming temperatures and limited rain will add early drought stress. The only chance of rain for this area is with a passing cold front next week Thursday and Friday. Soaking and in some cases flooding rain will impact the S Plains, Delta and the W Gulf States. The heavier rains will spread eastward into the E Midwest early next week, keeping soils well-watered. The forecast thru the weekend appears dry for the E Midwest. The best chance of rain is from late Sunday through next Thursday for the E Plains and the Midwest.
Yesterday cattle continued their string of up days with August cattle achieving a 4-week high with June cattle following. Cash markets were generally quiet across the Plains on Tuesday, though a few early sales were reported. Small numbers were reportedly traded in Nebraska at $191 dressed or $1-3 higher from last week. Live trades in the Western Midwest were quoted $1-3 over last week at $120. The early week outlook holds firm. The beef market charged higher again. The choice cutout notched gains of $3.26 to $312.37, and select rose $2.58 to $296.34. A top in the strong box beef market is anticipated ahead of the Memorial Day holiday.