Deliveries arrived for soybean oil and beans.
Grain futures are starting the last trading day of the month weaker, as deliveries did arrive for soybean oil in the amount of 629 contracts. There were 66 contracts of soybeans tendered against the May futures, which caused weakness initially overnight. That initial weakness was scooped up and then resold. There were 590 contracts of May KC wheat delivered with no corn or oats deliveries. May futures have largely liquidated with the contract only to be traded by commercials relative to their cash position. However, cash basis levels are strongly bid, and end-users are still seeking old crop corn/soy supply.
There are rumors that China is canceling several cargoes of Brazilian soybeans and that Brazilian soybeans are possibly being worked into the US East Coast and the tonnage amount of 110,000-165,000 MTs.
On Monday, it's anticipated NASS will report through Sunday 45-40% of the US corn and 32-34% of the US bean crop may have been planted. This fast-paced planting early in the season will create a heavy drag on new crop prices next week. Weather concern is growing amid the deepening dryness across the Dakotas and the NW Midwest. Planting in the dust is progressing rapidly, but rain in some abundance is required with immediacy. The dryness extends northward into Canada, where drought grips most of the Prairies. French crop ratings fell following the bitter cold of earlier this month. The French wheat crop was rated 81% GD/EX, down 4% from last week. 74% of the French corn crop has been seeded, which is average for the date. A year ago, the French winter wheat crop was rated 57% GD/EX following unusually heavy rainfall that flooded portions of the crop.
The US forecast is like prior runs with enough rain to fall to spark seed germination, outside of the Dakotas/Minnesota and Iowa. This area is enduring a quick fall in soil moisture that must be closely followed into the end of May. The jet stream is forecast to migrate northward, but it has yet to occur. Two spring storm systems will transverse the Central US over the next 10 days to produce near to above normal rain. 10-day totals here will be in a range of .5-2.00″. There are signs of the jet stream shifting northward so there will be rain chances for the Dakotas during the 11-15 day period, but so far that forecast shift has not been verified. The fear is that the models are incorrect in the shift until a Ridge forms over the Western US.
Cash cattle trade found light clean-up trade developing on Thursday. Sales were like earlier in the week at $118-119. While the cattle trade has been a disappointment this week, the beef market again pressed to new highs on Thursday. Choice boxed moved $1.26 at $293.76, and select boxes brought $279.79 or $.79 better than Wednesday. The disconnect between cash beef and cattle prices continues. Record retail prices continue to lift the wholesale market. But cattle have not kept pace as feedlots remain behind on marketings. Carcass weights have been above a year ago for most of 2021, and the seasonal decline has been muted since March. The Actual Slaughter Report marked the average steer carcass at 898 pounds or 9 over last year and 38 pounds over the 5-year average.