Corn above $6.00 for the first time since 2013.
Grain futures pushed higher overnight, with corn trading above 6 dollars for the first time since July 2013. Adverse Brazilian and central US weather and the tightening US old crop stocks scenario container bring in new fund buying interest and end-user pricing. New crop soybeans lag new crop corn's daily contract highs, running the risk that when the planters are rolling, farmers will favor the corn over soybeans, leaving new crop beans in an explosive manner if the June 30 acreage data does not show an uptick of well over a million acres.
The NOPA will be out with their March crush estimate at 11 AM CT. It is expected that NOPA will report a record March crush of 182-184 Mil Bu, a record for March (181.3 Mil Bu set the record for March last year). US equity futures are higher and back, either testing or scoring new all-time highs as earnings for both European and US banks come in stronger than expected. The US dollar is weaker, except against the Russian ruble. The Biden Administration is likely to announce new sanctions against Russia for their misconduct in recent US elections and the hack against SolarWinds. The US looks to bar US financial institutions from buying Russian Gov't debt which sent the ruble 1.5% lower to 77:1 USD. Yet, at the same time, there was talk of a Biden/Putin Summit as Russia amasses troops along the Western Ukraine border. Any Russian annexation of W Ukraine would be seen as bullish to the grains on Russian wheat/oilseed exports' political uncertainty.
It is too dry in Central Brazil and too cold across the Midwest with US end-users pushing basis bids to prod farmers to sell old crop grain. There is no room for 2021 US yield error with the expanding N Plains dryness worrisome to US/Canadian crop production this summer. The 3 primary weather models agree that a below-normal rainfall trend will hold across Central Brazilian winter corn areas. There are clear indications that the tropical rains are seasonally retreating north that will usher in the dry season in early May. Any rain that falls in the next 2-3 weeks will be extremely important to sustaining winter corn into the reproductive period that runs from late April into June. There will be a few showers on Sunday/Monday across Mato Grosso, but any widespread activity holds off until Wednesday-Friday of next week. Each run keeps pushing back the prospect of rain, which is a concern. Next week's late week system looks to produce .25-1.25″ of rain, which is 30-70% of normal.
A cold/dry weather pattern holds across the N Plains and the Midwest for another 10-12 days. Overnight low temps will fall into the 30's repeatedly with hints in the 12-15 day period of moderation. Corn establishment will be retarded by the outright 10-12 day chill.
Cattle futures closed lower yesterday for the 5th day in a row but landed into major technical support valuations that should offer support were short covering and new buying should materialize. The Fed Cattle Exchange auction had no sales on offerings of 3,643 head. Top bids ranged from $121-126, while reserve prices ranged from $122 up to $128. Elsewhere in the Plains, cash cattle markets were quiet through midweek with limited demand. Cattle feeders are looking for $1-3 higher this week. Boxed beef prices pushed higher at midweek. The choice cutout gained $2.80 to a new rally high of $272.91 while select was up $.77 at $267.31.