WASDE report out today at 11 AM CT.
Wheat and corn futures pressed higher overnight, while soybeans struggled to overcome overnight weakness. Wheat and corn futures were higher on anticipated Chinese interest and potentially friendly data for corn. WASDE releases its ending stocks report at 11 AM CT today. The average guesses for US April WASDE end stock estimates are 1,396 Mil Bu of corn, 119 Mil Bu of soybeans, and 847 Mil Bu of wheat. The wheat stocks would be slightly higher while corn is slightly lower and soybeans steady. It's anticipated that WASDE will utilize a sizeable negative residual use estimate which could allow for the increase in export and crude demand without changing end stocks. This would point at a reduced need for soybean demand rationing for old crop.
China reported that it's January-March CPI was flat with last year while food prices fell marginally at a rate of -.7%. The Chinese CPI data cautioned world traders about expecting too much inflation in the near term. In the meantime, the market is awaiting potential corn and HRW wheat sales to China, bringing support for both, along with the dryness in the northern Plains on spring wheat.
The winter corn areas of Brazil hold in a warm/dry weather pattern for another 10 days. The need for regular rainfall is dramatically rising, and a deep cut in winter corn yields is feared. The dry season starts in May. CONAB and WASDE may choose to leave winter corn production estimates unchanged, but Brazil's domestic corn market is worried with prices are record highs at $7.20/Bu on Thursday. Brazil corn shortage is growing, and the country should be importing large tonnages of Argentine corn production. Mato Grosso rain chances will occur from today thru Sunday with totals of .25-1.25″. Totals over 1.00″ will be centered over the far Western Mato Grosso Crop area. The southern and eastern crop areas of Mato Grosso (where most of the winter corn is planted) hold in a dramatically dry trend.
A few lite showers are forecast for Eastern North Dakota and the E Canadian Prairies, but rainfall totals will be less than .40″ and the coverage of rain will be below 50%. The concern for N Dakota and Canadian crop seeding is serious.
After a fresh round of contract highs, cattle futures stalled yesterday following what has been an active and sharply higher cash trade on Wednesday. This week, the business's bulk was done at midweek with any additional sales to be similarly higher. The rally in boxed beef extended into Thursday with no signs of slowing. The choice cut gained $4.19 to $270.50, while select beef led the way, jumping $8.64 to $263.83. Since the start of the month, the choice value is up $23. The loin value has added $8.50, and ribs have put on $5.50. With the June cattle on the spot contract, the April contract Formed a high in mid-February at 126.70. That appears on the chart as resistance and could create a stall point for June cattle.