Overnight mixed grain trade extremely low volume.
Mixed session overnight, with corn and wheat on the retreat, with soybean finding support from the recovering soybean meal market that continues to stabilize just under $400 a ton. With only 5 1/2 trading sessions till the March 31 Stocks/Seeding's report, concerning is that the volume in the night session is so low. Last night corn traded less than one fourth of the volume typically traded in the month of February for the night session. Cash markets will be closely watched for basis movement, especially with corn at premium in the Midwest, with no cancellations corn exports are already 99% sold for our annual export forecast that doesn't end until September 1 of this year.
The EPA announced that it would extend the deadline for refiners/blenders to report their compliance with the US’s biofuel laws for 2019 and 2020. Small refiners/blenders have until November 2021 to submit their documentation for 2019 while documentation for 2020 is due on January 31st, 2022. President Biden’s green fuel push has rallied RIN values to multi year highs.
China reported a regional outbreak of ASF in Xinjiang. China continues to battle ASF, but pork prices are in retreat on enlarged production as producers replenish their herds in response to highly profitable margins. Thursday at 2 PM is the all Hogs and Pigs report, with across-the-board declines of near 1% anticipated.
A high pressure Ridge holds across NE Brazilian which raises confidence in a dry 10-day forecast for most of E and N Brazil. This will speed the soybean harvest but raises long term soil moisture risks for winter corn. Near to above normal rainfall will stabilize Argentine crop yield potential, but April marks the start of a more aggressive phase of their harvest. Drier weather would help speed harvest activities. Dry weather is forecast for N and C Brazil with the 11–15-day GFS forecast offering a few showers. Confidence in this rain is low with the extended European and Canadian models dry. As such, a below normal rain trend is offered for winter Brazilian corn into April 5thth. High temps will range from the 80’s to the mid 90’s, some 5-9 degrees warmer than normal adding to the evaporative decline in soil moisture.
April cattle remain stagnant in the 118.00-119.00, awaiting for cash to start reflecting improvement. The delivery process for April cattle starts in just over 2 weeks. The spring beef rally looks to have started a few weeks early with beef cutout values up $7/cwt in the last week. On Tuesday, choice gained $3 and select was up $2. Cash cattle markets were at a standstill. Estimated slaughter margins last week were at $295/head and were a record large for late March (excluding 2020). That margin is a simple estimate based on the spread between wholesale beef prices and the replacement cost of live cattle. Not included is the value of the by-product which has been streaking higher on tallow demand. The by-product bottomed at $80/head last July and has gone straight up since. Last week, the drop credit added $122/head to packer’s bottom lin